Welcome to Week 5, Gents. This week we’re going to get analytical. Jichael Jintzel has been hard at work with Jason crunching some numbers. To do this, they analyzed each team through the first four weeks to produce a stat called “All-Play Record.”
All-Play Record takes your score from a given week, and pits you against every other opponent in the league that week. For example, in Week 1, Team 1 scored 150 points and their opponent, Team 2, scored 100 points. Additionally, Teams 3, 4, 5, and 6 all scored between 110-140 points, and Teams 7, 8, 9, and 10 all scored between 160-180 points. So, in All-Play Record, Team 1 isn’t simply 1-0, they are instead 5-4. This is because it measures your win/loss if you played every team that week. Since there have been four full weeks so far, a team’s All-Play Record will have a total of 36 games.
Jichael and Jason also performed the same analysis on the 2024 and 2025 seasons to see if it could be used to predict success metrics in the remaining weeks of the season. Listed below are some League-wide patterns from 2024–25, for Weeks 1–4 vs Weeks 5–14. Following that are the stats for each team for this year.
League Patterns:
- Team record after four weeks barely predicts the rest of the season. Scoring and All-Play Record (your record if you played every team every week) predict it about twice as well. - Teams that won far more than their scoring deserved (fraudulent teams) went 23-27 afterwards. - Teams that won far less than their scoring deserved (reverse frauds) went 24-26 afterwards, and most had winning records. - Top-two All-Play teams all finished .500 or better the rest of the way, but none kept their early pace. - Bottom-two All-Play teams went 19-31 afterwards. - Weak early QB groups always recovered to the top half, and weak WR groups usually did. Weak RB groups rarely did. - Early TE strength lasted best. Early WR and RB strength held about half the time.
Individual Team Stats:
They Hit the Second Bower (4-0, 1st in scoring, 143.9 per game)
- Best All-Play Record in the league (24-12, tied 1st), with D/ST 1st, TE 2nd and RB 3rd. - No past team is a close match. Teams with this kind of early All-Play Record all finished .500 or better, but won less often than they did early. - Two of the four wins came by under 5 points, so expect a good team, not an unbeaten one. - Easiest remaining schedule in the league.
4Birds 3Peat (3-1, 2nd in scoring, 136.9)
- Tied for the best All-Play Record. WR is 2nd and TE 3rd, but QB is 9th and RB 8th. - Previously similar WR-led teams split: one kept leading the league in scoring, the other dropped to .500 when the WRs cooled off. - QB weakness is the kind that has always corrected itself. The WR edge is the real risk.
BJJJ's (2-2, 3rd in scoring, 136.3)
- The steadiest team in the league: top half in scoring all four weeks. - An extreme build: RB 1st and QB 1st, WR last. - Previously similar teams all had winning records afterwards. - Expect the positions to converge: weak WR starts usually recovered to the top four, while half of the dominant RB starts fell off sharply.
Magic in the Hampton (1-3, 4th in scoring, 134.2)
- The record undersells them: a winning All-Play Record (20-16) and no position worse than 7th. - Previously similar teams all had winning records the rest of the way. - One caution: one of those teams kept winning while its scoring dropped a lot, so the record outlook is safer than the scoring outlook.
TiennAmon Square (2-2, 5th in scoring, 133.2)
- Top four at QB, RB and WR, with a 21-15 All-Play Record. - Previously similar teams all had winning records afterwards, 6-4 or better. - The one gap similar teams did not have: last at K and 9th at D/ST, costing about 6 points a week. Week 4 was lost by 2.
Maltby's Mans (1-3, 6th in scoring, 128.1)
- Average at every position (4th–7th) with a near-even All-Play Record (17-19). - Previously similar teams went in every direction, from a winning record to a collapse, so this is a coin flip. - The most volatile team in the league, with scores from 84 to 171. Past teams this erratic early mostly struggled afterwards. - Second-easiest remaining schedule.
Sauce (0-4, 7th in scoring, 121.4)
- Better than the record: 16-20 All-Play, and opponents have scored heavily against them. - TE is 1st, but RB is 9th. - Previously similar teams scored noticeably more afterwards but still finished a little under .500. - The RB problem is the kind that has not fixed itself, while the TE edge is the kind that lasts.
The Brumderdogs (4-0, 8th in scoring, 119.9)
- The biggest gap between record and scoring in three seasons: 14-22 All-Play, with opponents averaging 91.6. - Previously similar teams all had losing records afterwards, combining for 7-23. - WR is 3rd, but TE and D/ST are both last. - Lucky starters only kept winning when they were also top-three scorers, which this team is not.
LDPenix (2-2, 9th in scoring, 116.2)
- The best WR group in the league, but RB is last and TE is 8th. All-Play Record is 13-23. - The worst outlook of any team: previously similar WR-heavy teams without RB or TE production combined for 6-24 afterwards. - The schedule gets harder: second-easiest opponents so far, second-hardest remaining.
Strib Club (1-3, 10th in scoring, 109.6)
- Last in scoring and 9-27 All-Play. RB is 2nd, but QB is last and WR and TE are 9th. - No past team is a close match. Teams this low in early - - All-Play mostly stayed near the bottom. Some room for hope: weak QB and WR groups have usually recovered. - Hardest remaining schedule in the league.
-------------------------------------------------------- THE WEEKLY LOCK (by Schmichael Schminzel)
After a much needed win last week, Michael told me I could spend a few days with my family before heading back to work (he’s the best boss ever!) I’d like to thank Bryce Young, or more specifically, the Lions Defense for bringing me great success. And you know what they say, “if the lions are playing, bet on the opposing team’s offense.” So we’re keeping it really simple this week and taking Trey McBride for 8+ receptions. McBride has been the focal point of the Cardinals offense. In his first four games of the season he’s had 9, 8, 9, and 7 catches. The Lions just allowed Tetairoa McMillan to haul in 14 catches last week, so 8 should be a breeze for McBride. Also, not that it matters much, Marvin Harrison Jr. is not playing this weekend following the news that he would be traded at some point next week. He didn’t see many targets anyway, but now McBride and Michael Wilson are pretty much the only viable receiving threats for the Cardinals.
Furthermore, the game should be a barn burner, as the Cardinals defense is generally awful as well, and the Lions have one of the top offenses in the league. The over/under is currently set at 54.5 points (which I think is still too low). Since McBride 8+ catches is only at -158 (on DraftKings), I recommend parlaying that bet with Total Over 46.5 or 47.5 to bring the odds to around -105 to +105, earning you an even payout.
Some other bets I like: Trey McBride TD, Michael Wilson over receiving yards, Goff & Brissett over passing yards, total over 54.5.
Disclaimer: I, Schmichael Schminzel, am solely responsible for any incorrect picks. Michael Vintzel and MWF as an organization bear no responsibility for any losses incurred following my advice.
-------------------------------------------------------- THE GALLERY
Thanks, Schmichael. If you hit your bet again I might even give you a day of PTO. And now let’s wrap up this week’s article with a look at the latest artwork by Jason! This week we will be highlighting Sauce:
Two years in a row Sauce has missed playoffs by just a hair. Having passed on the retard ray to a new owner, his players are now battling injuries and domestic abuse allegations. Can he prove he’s more than the allegations suggest and find a spot in the playoffs?
